Swine flu passing through?

[Michael Alexander]

Myself and Israel were locking up Spar 2nite, when the ambulance came flying pass..... on it's way east..... The Spar driver who was with us, stated that two chaps, one black and one white were taken of the Debmarine boats with symptoms of Swine Flu.... perhaps it was them being taken out of town?, he said in hushed voice...... Anyone know anything?

[Sean]

I know that a couple of guys were flown off today with flu symptoms but not confirmed as swine flu yet as far as I know.  I saw the ambulance at the airport ready to whisk them away.  At that stage it was a precaution but haven't heard an update since around lunch. 

Apparently the hospital has plans in place to deal with cases should the need arise.  Good test drill even if it turns out to be a false alarm....

[Michael Alexander]

Thanks for that Sean.... I like your Homer........ I have the first 10 seasons of the Simpsons.... Box sets.... Donuts, what can;t they do!

[SandyB]

Currently  anyone that arrives at work looking  like  hell ie fluey .. send them straight home wiht instruction to see doctor  .. and I'm  not one that encourages  this  sort of thing but Ihave a responsibility to  all my staff and of course me .. dont want to be sick .. so far unscatthed this entire flu season ..

[Bertie Horak]

Swine flu quite real in my area. I have a patient from Paul Roos who has it (confirmed).  Some schools closing for a while.  Yesterday Bloemhof in Stellenbosch closed, they had a 37% absentee figure due to flu (or the fear there-of).
Quite expensive to be tested - it's just a throat and mouth swab, but I heard figures of between R700-R1300.  Good thing I'm wearing masks, and I'm staying out of shopping centers in busy times.  Will be on my own on plot this weekend, hopefully away from all the sneezing folk...

[Michael Alexander]

My staff were bitchin about the expected 1500 Visitors coming to Omund in the next few weeks, were worried what flu like symptoms they might be bringing with them..... you guys know how it is here, one kid in the school gets measles..... then a large majority of the school follows....

[Sean]

Sounds like it is inevitable that it will reach here eventually from what Bertie is saying....  At least the preparations are in place so it should be fairly easy to control in a small place like this. 

Mike, I'm with you, you gotta love the Simpsons!!!  DOH.....! 

[toonfandangl]

Michael its quite interesting this swine flu epidemic, we have been told that its more likely to effect the younger generation and people with other illnesses linked.

Below is a bit of information, the interesting thing about the whole flu epidemics is that to date there have been 204.848 confirmed cases 1.686 deaths world wide.

In America (pop 302.000.000) road deaths 41.000 makes you wonder................................................................................




Swine flu: why are older people (apparently) less at risk?

Category: CDC • Epidemiology • Infectious disease • Influenza treatment • Swine flu
Posted on: May 22, 2009 6:45 AM, by revere

There is as yet no vaccine for the novel H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic strain of influenza now causing widespread illness in North America and what appears to be the start of growing outbreaks in Japan and parts of Europe (but check out this excellent piece over at ScienceInsider). WHO says most developing nations are not able to track influenza, so what is happening in Africa and parts of Asia is not known with any confidence. While the clinical illness from this virus doesn't seem very different than seasonal flu, the fact that most of the world's population has no immunity to it means there is potential for wider and swifter spread than seasonal flu. The exception to lack of immunity may be in a specific subpopulation -- one to which I belong: the elderly (aka the "older age group"). That has been the working hypothesis for why there may be a relative sparing of the very group that seasonal influenza hits hardest, and now we have a bit of data consistent with this idea.

While hard data about transmission characteristics, virulence and the possibility of cross-protection from recent flu vaccines has been scarce, CDC and public health scientists have been at work and now we are seeing some of the first fruits. Using stored serum samples from various sources, CDC has been looking to see if they contain antibodies that might cross-react with the new virus. The sera come from children and adults vaccinated with seasonal vaccines in the 2005--06, 2006--07, 2007--08, or 2008--09 seasons. Sera both before and after vaccination for each subject were used to see if any of the seasonal vaccines induced cross-reactivity to the current swine flu virus. The bottom line is essentially, "no." But not all the information is negative. 6% of adults age 18- 40 years old had any evidence of antibody cross reacting with the new virus but 33% of adults over 60 did. And a few people in all age groups showed seroconversion after vaccination with one or the seasonal vaccines. Children had no measurable antibodies or response to seasonal vaccine against the virus. Whether these antibody reactions indicate protection is still unclear. On the other hand, it is possible there is additional protection from antibodies not measured by the assays used in this study. In any event, this is at least some data consistent with the residual immunity hypothesis. If that's the case, where would this immunity have come from?

The two main possibilities are from past infection with one or more H1N1 viruses that cross-react with the novel swine flu virus; or protection brought about by previous vaccinations (before 2005). It sounds as if CDC might be looking into the possibility that using more sera and a finer gradation of age categories could allow it to pin down the years when any protection may have been acquired. The lack of protection afforded by recent seasonal vaccines is not such a surprise. Those vaccines are very much like the recent seasonal strains (97%-98% amino acid sequence identity in the hemagglutinin protein) but only 72%-73% identity for the swine flu virus. It is likely similar results would hold for earlier H1N1 strains, at least post-1977, when H1N1 reappeared after an absence of 20 years to co-circulate with the H3N2 seasonal flu virus, but we don't know that yet. 47 million people were vaccinated with a swine flu vaccine in 1976. That strain was different, but it could conceivably be playing a part.

One suspicion is that the H1N1 that suddenly "came back" in 1977 was different from the H1N1 circulating before the H2N2 pandemic of 1957. The swine influenza virus of that era was originally from humans that jumped to pigs after the 1918 pandemic. It remains a mystery where the 1977 virus came from, but in 1978 Peter Palese's lab in New York discovered it was closely related to a Russian virus isolated in 1950. Vincent Racaniello, whose Virology Blog is always worth reading, picks up the story:

    Influenza viruses of the H3N2 subtype were still circulating in humans in May of 1977 when H1N1 viruses were isolated in China and then Russia. In the winter of 1977-78 the H1N1 viruses caused epidemic infection throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The results of serological tests indicated that the HA and NA glycoproteins of the 1977 H1N1 viruses were very similar to those from viruses of the same subtype which circulated in 1950. Palese's group compared viral RNA of one 1977 isolate, A/USSR/90/77, with RNA from a virus isolated in 1950. To their surprise, the two viral RNAs were highly related. In contrast, there was less similarity between viral RNAs from the 1977 H1N1 virus and H1N1 viruses that circulated in humans between 1947 and 1956.

    Why were the viral genomes of the 1977 H1N1 isolate and the 1950 virus so similar? If the H1N1 viruses had been replicating in an animal host for 27 years, far more genetic differences would have been identified. The authors suggested several possibilities, but only one is compelling:

        . . . it is possible that the 1950 H1N1 influenza virus was truly frozen in nature or elsewhere and that such a strain was only recently introduced into man.

    The suggestion is clear: the virus was frozen in a laboratory freezer since 1950, and was released, either by intent or accident, in 1977. This possibility has been denied by Chinese and Russian scientists, but remains to this day the only scientifically plausible explanation.

    [snip]

    I was a Ph.D. student in Peter Palese's laboratory when Katsuhisa Nakajima and Ulrich Desselberger did the work in 1978 that revealed the close identity of the H1N1 strains with isolates from 1950. It revealed to me, for the first time, how an important finding creates enormous excitement in the laboratory and in the scientific community, and how general interest is fueled by the press. (Vincent Racaniello, Virology Blog)

[Skinny]

Having a son with swine flu at home in Capetown at the moment and he is as sick as a dog. I was at hospital yesterday when the one guy was booked in and looking at him and listening to him tell his symptoms to his friend who was with him and the way he was coughing and sweating it could well be swine flu. So buy lots of oranges, for the vitamin c (spar got a speacial on at the mo!!!!) and try and stay away from hospital until they confirmed it. Doppies told me they have lots of tamiflu so all is good.

[Paul Alexander]

Point of note: one of the chaps who medically flew out yesterday was on of my IT guys. Not swine flue though, he needs a rather urgent op... but you know ORanjemund and the rumour mill

[Michael Alexander]

Well thats one down, one to go!!!!!!!!!!!!

rooster

[Riaan Smit]

Oranjemund Telegraph:

IT worker has a virus. Virus will be surgical removed from his PC. (Fill in the gaps...) 

[Michael Alexander]

I see that a few of the boarding school kids have returned to Oranjemund from schools in the Cape, this is due to the Swine Flu causing their schools to shut down for a short period, one wonders if this is such a good idea or just a double edged sword........

[SandyB]

Actually looking at it  seriously .. this is frighteneing stuff... if one  is healthy .. best chances are  a bit of flu .. if ones stupid and  tries  to  ignore and push on a good chance of it taking the upper hand and  taking  one out ..  if one has underlying health problems ..  even   down to diabetes  chances are its going to  your system .. 2 of the latest  deaths  had  diabetes ..  and if one is immune compromised ,,  ie; stress  .. exhaustion ..   malnouriished ... HIV ..  good chance it will  do damage  and  possibly take one out .. its a new  cocktail strain ..  and  yes  can easily take the upper hand ..  as said anyone that comes to work looking like  they  got flu ,, ask questions  .. and if I get the flu symptons answer  I send them  home and tell them to seek medical atention .. got  to protect my workforce .. I   hate excessive absenteeism .. but here I'm taking the exception ...  sooner safe than sorry ..

[Barbara Eia (Brownless)]

Here the swine flu has reared its ugly head and I had 50% of my work force off with it...they are just ringing the doctor giving symptoms and are then given the tamiflu..WE have a call centre here that has employed 15 year olds..thses are kids who have just finished there GCSE and waiting results...they are being payed £17.00 an hour and giving advice when people call..They have a sheet that they read from...where does it end...In the paper the other day they were saying how people were coming back from their annual leave and ringing in to say they had caught swine flu while they were away and could not come back to work for another 5 days...where does it end